Option three is where I had the most hope for the American.

Options one and two are where this fight was actually won.

 Move Left

This is something I've spoken about in detail for years — enough so that we built an entire two-hour course on the site around it, because once you understand the mechanics (and the risk that comes with them) it becomes, in my opinion, one of the most effective tools an orthodox fighter has. Albeit a very risky one in the wrong hands.

It's a strategy that's been used for decades. If you've seen the breakdown on Thomas "The Hitman" Hearns, you'll know all about it. Fighters out of the Kronk gym were famous for their stinging jabs and murderous right hands — Hearns and McClellan being the best examples — and even fighters like Lennox Lewis, Wladimir Klitschko, and Tyson Fury sought out Emanuel Steward's wisdom at the Kronk Gym over the years.

The reason an orthodox fighter moves left is simple: it turns the leading fighter square. If you step first, your opponent must follow — and there's a window where you can catch them mid-step, land a free shot, and line up your own right hand. Done well, you can step inside the opponent's stance, throw your full weight through a backhand, then pivot off your lead foot and get out of the way before they can square back up and fire.

The downside? You're stepping towards their danger hand.

This is exactly why Steward turned his fighters into technical punchers who committed fully to their shots. He spent a lot of time honing punch mechanics. His philosophy was simple:  land first, with enough spite and force to at best; knock their block off. At worst; just put the other man on his heels and into retreat.

 The attack was the defense.

The major downside of moving left is the opponent can cut you off with the right hand as you step across, and this happened to Justin.

 Fig 2. Hearns Right Hand.                             

Fig 3. Topuria cuts Gaethje off with a right hand.

Why would Gaethje move Left? 

So why would I suggest Gaethje move towards Topuria's best weapon? Because done properly, by disrupting Topuria's rhythm and occupying his right hand, it stops him from punching in combination, which is where he's most dangerous.

Topuria punches well with both hands and moving to your right or straight back keeps him in his stance as he follows — meaning if his first right hand misses, he can follow it with a left, then another right. But if you make him miss that first right while moving left, he can't fire the follow-up. The combination dies on the first punch.

When you’re aware of this concept you can see Gathje darting to his left and an angle after pretty much everything when he had the space behind him.

There's another wrinkle: Topuria struggles to cut fighters off effectively on this side, and he can get caught following. You see, if he steps with his right foot first, he has to put it down again before he can punch. There is a window he can be caught.

When Gaethje circled left he force Topuria to break his base making him an ineffective striker for moments in time.

Avoiding the Swarm 

Now because Topuria is such a good combination puncher I knew Gathje would HAVE to go backwards. If he traded with Topuria on even terms he was going to have a terrible time. He just hits too damn hard. This was evident on the multiple occasions Gaethje was sent reeling back by straight punches. Fortunately for “The Highlight” he is just durable enough to still be conscious after one of them landed. He has the type of durability that doesn’t switch off with just one shot, Topuria would need to be able to swarm.

As Topuria applied pressure he would sometimes bring his rear foot in first. This could be considered a footwork error as he’s momentarily in a stance too narrow to attack or defend effectively. Justin exploited this, stinging Topuria with jabs as he stepped in to a distance where he believed he was safe. The reason Topuria would do this is, because if done well, he can sneak in closer without the opponent realising.

 Figure 5. Topuria rear foot first.                  Figure 6. Gaethje times the feet

The front foot gives it away. If topuria stepped in with the left foot Gaethjes alam bells would go off and he’d either retreat or boot ilias leg off.

With the back leg first he can get close enough that one the next step he can attack.

Unfortunately Gaethje foiled this plan, and I hope it was a coaching tactic rather than instinct as it was fantastic.

Tactics "Trumps" Technique

Gaethje isn't a pretty puncher. He throws with the knuckles on his fingers leading and kind of wings the shot down. It's not how you'd coach a fighter to turn a punch over, but it's effective. He's an athlete, plain and simple — the wrestling scrambles and back flips tell you that much — and he throws every strike with real intent. That's more than enough to do damage to a man's face.

With the right tactics in place to stifle Topuria's offence, Gaethje could finally afford to sit down on his own punches from time to time, particularly when there was open space behind him. For much of the fight his priority wasn't landing clean shots, but denying Topuria the opportunity to build momentum. The level changes, the grabbing, the flapping with the lead hand to fake a hook were all pieces in the puzzle that allowed Gaethje to be more offensive despite spending large portions of the bout moving backwards.

Fig 7. Justin waving the lead hand about. 

Fig 8. Justins questionable tekkers

Collar Ties and Uppercuts

The next tactic Gaethje used to great effect was the collar tie into the uppercut. On paper, this sounds like something simple that every gym in the world will go on to teach.  “Ye, so let’s grab the opponents head and sling some dirty uppercuts boys and girls”, but it’s not that easy. The timing is everything.

Technically, Gaethje hunches over and tucks his chin into his chest — like a turtle pulling its head into its shell — using his shoulders to shield his chin. The punch mechanics themselves could be done by a monkey. What made it work was the timing. He knew when his back was towards the cage he had to be proactive. As Topuria stepped in that’s when he’d initiate.

Another facet to the technique that Gaethje has down is the head inside bend at the waist. This is something you’d see in every boxing gym. If timed well the opponent will overreach on the right hand, the punch sailing over your back, and you can then step into smother. From here Justin can come up and use his left hand to grab at the head.

This is something Gaethje has always done well. Reportedly his eyesight is poor enough that he can barely see his own hands in front of his face, so he's always relied on feel to know where his opponent is.

That instinct may well have saved him in this fight — if he couldn't bludgeon Topuria outright, he could at least make him back up and take the pressure off. That was crucial, arguably as important as actually hurting Topuria: stopping him from landing on target.

Topuria Adapts

Now where Topuria adapted his offense to this was digging the exposed body. If Justin was a boss in a game think of Gaethjes back and shoulders as his armoured turtle shell. You have 2 options of vulnerability. Knees to his downward facing mug – Eddie Alvarez style- or hit the body. As Topuria is a tiny lightweight with short limbs he went for the latter.

His left hook slap to body shot is sublime. The technique on his liver shot is perfect.

 The Turning Point

This brings us to the biggest moment of the fight — the one where Topuria really fumbled the bag.

With a few minutes left in round two, Topuria had Gaethje reeling from a liver shot. He was cooked. In a kickboxing or boxing ruleset Gaethje would have taken a count or Topuria would have disengaged and followed up with more punches.

Instead, Gaethje dived in and Topuria took the fight to the mat.

At first, this didn't look like a mistake. Topuria was smothering him on the ground, and at one point looked on his way to a triangle-into-armbar finish. But in those moments, I noticed something I hadn't seen from Topuria before: desperation. He really wanted the finish.

 What at first looked like a predator doing whatever he wanted to wounded prey started to look like a man who was hurting and just wanted the fight to be over. After the failed sub attempts, he sat on top for the final 20–30 seconds, coasting out the round to regroup. It spelled trouble.

 Image: Topuria desperate to finish the armbar. This sequence wasn't a man in full control. He was no longer happy to be in there.

Topuria then spent the opening minutes of round three helplessly eating jabs as he tried to recover — calling on a second wind that never came.

I felt everything after that moment was a flat Topuria, damaged and exhausted, fighting on instinct and survival. I admired the courage both men showed. Those who have fought can empathise and understand the physical pain and suffering the body endures, the throbbing from the cuts, the blood in your eyes, barely able to summon the energy to lead an attack but still being spiteful enough to try and reply with what little is left– but none of us can say we were defending our UFC title in the main event on the whitehouse lawn.

By this point, I can't imagine there was much rational thought given to tactics or strategy. It was about putting the intrusive thoughts of "How badly hurt am I? Can I die?" to one side.

Unfortunately for Topuria he was in there with an opponent that was used to this territory.

Gaethje had dragged Topuria into his world. Mission accomplished.